Diffusion of Innovations-Netflix

Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation (or Ideas)

The beloved theory by many, including First Amendment scholar Dean Smith, leaves me speechless as I struggle to find an idea, concept, or innovation that exists outside its boundaries. I guess that's why it's deemed to be so robust. Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation theory focuses on why some things catch on and others do not? Who adopts and who does not? When do they do so, and why? In this bell-curved model, time sits on the x-axis while penetration lies on the y-axis. Seems obvious, but penetration cannot exist past 85% simply because whatever it is can't or won't be distributed to areas that lack geographic and economic appeal (rural areas), certain demographics refuse or can't adapt (elderly), financial debilitations, and personal preference.

Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation 
(or ideas)

Application of Rogers' Theory

To stick within its intent, I'll explore a technological innovation using this theory. For the EOTO project, I chose Netflix as my tech to share with the class and its viral ability inspired me to focus this post around it. Netflix, the global streaming platform that changed how we view content and created an entirely new industry at the time can also be applied to Rogers' model. The inventors (or pioneers as they were referred to by Smith) of Netflix: marketing mogul Marc Randolph and computer wiz Reed Hastings (1997). Within the year Early Adopters, being the scavengers that they are (or maybe you choose to think of them as trendsetters), took to the platform as it modified itself to go digital with the establishment of Netflix.com. Soon all of Silicon Valley began talking about the newest streaming service that would make cable obsolete. In 2007, an Early Majority built up over the years and Netflix began to expand to other parts of the world. In Roger's theory, the Early Majority can be defined when the thing has become normalized and the new industry standard. However, Netflix was so innovative, that it created an industry, unlike anything we've seen before; revolutionizing the way people watched and received content. As unlimited streaming came in, cable was phased out and remembered as the finicky and expensive entertainment system it was. 

Rogers' late majority arrived in 2017 during the maturation phase. With new features like interactive storytelling, skip intro button, and custom profile picture characters, more people were pulled into signing up for Netflix. The story mode is a little bit too much for me. It feels like I have too much power that if the story doesn't go as I planned I can just play the show again and alter it so that it does. I tried it once and I found myself playing out every scenario possible and then going back to pick my favorite one; I wound up wasting hours and believing if I messed up in real life I could just go back and do the same. It sounds juvenile but you'd be surprised how many people believe in this concept. Sandwiched in between the early and late majority parties lies the tipping point. Soon anyone who's going to get it already has it. 

The Elderly Get Netflix 

To squeeze out the last of those who cave into buying the service or product, Rogers calls these people the 'laggards'. This is a period where the bell curve drops back down to its initial point known as saturation. This is the category I found my grandmother to be in. She protested for years that Netflix was too high-tech for her and thought they didn't carry titles she would like. Practically every other person in the world had titles recommended to them of their preference, but she (a 65-year-old immigrant from India) would be their only exception. It didn't matter that much of India used Netflix and raved about it in her weekly calls back to her homeland-the oldie refused to join. Until she learned that Oprah Winfrey and Ellen Degeneres had a Netflix account and recommended watching some of its original features. Typical. If it wasn't her God, Gandhi, or any iconic television show host who suggested something, she wouldn't even consider it. The year 2020, the arrival time of the infamous pandemic, finally broke her down to take Ellen and Oprah's advice to subscribe to the basic package Netflix has to offer. Funny enough, my grandmother joined the younger generation by becoming a Netflix Binger! She is captivated by the thousands of titles from India and America. She fell back in love with her favorite shows and discovered new Bollywood films. Even more strange-she ended up climbing through the black hole that reality television is and frankly, she hasn't found her way out yet. Honest to God I get a thirty-minute call from her every now and then just so she can inform me about Kim Kardashian's divorce, what Ellen and Oprah think about the President, or who's the most scandalous in Hollywood now. Don't even get me started with the hype my Grandma Daisy put out on Facebook about Ellen's new stand-up special on Netflix (despite her being the most conservative and prejudiced person I know but that's much too deep for this blog post). Netflix has both created and filled the void in my grandmother's life of having too much time on her hands. So thank you Netflix for keeping her occupied. However, my worst nightmare is for her to take part in this generation's popular dating concept of Netflix and Chill.

Netflix through the lens of the Diffusion Theory

Now that I've applied this theory to Netflix, let's talk about why and how it worked so well. First, why did Netflix catch on and spread? Well, because it was the first of its kind. To grow their business the co-founders saw the opportunity to drift from their roots by reinventing how people view content. Instead of focusing on a speedier DVD mailing system, Netflix chose to become an entertainment streaming platform. It cultivates this idea of limitless content, available at any time, and for one standard price every month. After the inventors created it, it was stupid for early adopters in Silicon Valley to not try and get in on it. It became the new normal as the library would refresh its content monthly to keep customers' interest peaked and eyes glued to their screens. Additional features like being Ad-free, not having to wait to watch what you want, and the family package brought Netflix into a new realm of wealth and popularity. Also, because Netflix is affordable and requires a credit card to be on file that can be charged monthly, financially smart or young adults, typically those with a family or of college-age, were in the early majority. This means, that if your parents had a Netflix account when you grew up, you probably couldn't live without it when you left for college; leading to a mass demographic subscribing at the same time creating a spike in Netflix's stock.

The late majority were those who we think of as skeptics or the person who only will buy something after their friend has first-so they don't waste their energy, time, or money on whatever it is. Netflix grabbed this population through again, adding more titles, investing more in advertising, and getting the algorithm down to an exact science that can predict the reality of content of interest for you. There were only late adopters because of age. Some elderly people simply can't figure out new technology or find comfort in familiarity. However, as I previously established, once they were hooked on Netflix-this group won't separate from it. This brings a whole new meaning to "till death do us part," if you know what I mean. Those who never subscribed (15%) to Netflix refuse to do so because they enjoy cable television more with its dependable channels, precise air times, and informative commercials. 

Negatives of Netflix

Negative consequences of Netflix: longevity of titles available, privacy, and competition. Since Netflix has to buy rights to every title they add to their arsenal, titles are only available for a certain amount of time. I jumped on the bandwagon of The Office stans. When Netflix took the show off, I was angry even though I had already seen every episode; my favorites I probably had replayed over five times. Despite this, I couldn't help but be curious and dare I say, excited, to see the newest titles Netflix added or originally produced. As with everything on the internet, privacy is always an issue. Access to your account and payment information can be leaked and stolen by hackers. Competition is the last category that Netflix lacks in. With all of the competition from Disney+ to YouTube TV, Netflix has raised its prices to gain back the money they've lost. Despite the negatives, I still believe Netflix is a great option for streaming. It allows one to explore media from different countries, cultivates a community around shows/films, and is the most suitable choice for families and individuals. 

With new technology practically coming out every day, I have to ask myself when do I say that's enough? Perhaps it's when my privacy is obviously being exposed rather than under the table, when it puts me in danger, or maybe when my loved ones are affected. All of the social media apps and devices I use already do this. They leak my location, messages, calls, photographs, and more but still, I choose to use them. Why? Because technology keeps me connected and humans physiologically are wired to crave connection. It's just the tech companies who are manipulating the vulnerability this time.  

Final Thoughts

This so-called theory of Roger's that has stood the test of time, works in many circumstances, and all people can apply leaves me with a few questions. For starters, what if a resource is withheld from a certain group of people but open to others? Does the bell curve model transition to an S with an insane level of uptake? Does the bell curve restart? I also wondered if certain products can relapse with each new feature. For example, Netflix officially ran its course from 1997-2020 (after the first year of the pandemic) the company has managed to sweep up the last of its customers. However, with each new addition or modification to Netflix, like interactive storytelling-does the bell curve restart from pioneers and early adopters to the late majority and laggards? I also think that this model can prove to be dangerous as many companies use it as their recipe for success. My fear is the model could foster this echo chamber where people only get what they like and constantly have their ideas inflated by information only reinforcing them. It's important to be mindful of ideas and innovations that seem to catch on just maybe a tad too fast. If your gut tells you to wait a while and see how it goes, I'd listen to it. But don't wait too long, you just might miss out (quite the conundrum isn't it).